Spring 2025 Check In

A lot has been going on in the market as of late. There are 3 things at the top of everyone’s mind. What is going on? Where are we going? What do we do? I will answer the third question first.

What do we do?

To me, this is more important than the first and second questions. I know you will not be surprised by this answer coming from us. We will tell you to stay the course and do nothing. Why do we say this again and again. I will quote John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard. “When something monstrous happens, big noisy and effects the market greatly on a short-term basis, the answer is, don’t just stand there, do something. But the real answer is, don’t do something, just stand there. Don’t get captivated by the emotions of the moment. We own all the companies in America. This is and will be the winning strategy.”

What is going on?

The markets are uncertain as to what is going on and what the impact of the tariffs and this trade war will do. The market does not like uncertainty. Volatility will be with us for a while until the dust settles. No one can tell you exactly what is going to happen and when the market downturn will stop. Until forecasts for inflation, corporate earnings, the economy, employment and other economic statistics become clearer, the path to the future is less certain. The markets will settle down at some point as these measurements become clearer. Economists and market strategists are constantly evaluating the data to give us guidance. We listen to them to guide us to help you and your portfolios.

Where are we going?

The market will head up again. The economy was doing well as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), overall inflation was heading lower, new employment remained strong and the unemployment number is good. The analysts are now trying to figure out how the tariffs will impact these items. It appears that this year may be impacted more negatively but hopefully not too drastically from what we are hearing right now.

I believe our corporate leaders will figure out how to best grow their company earnings regardless of what hurdles the government puts in front of them. It’s their job. They will find a way and earnings will grow. As earnings grow, so grows the stock values. I’ll share another quote from Jason Zweig that I read earlier this week. He writes a column called the Intelligent Investor for the Wall Street Journal. He said, “But, for as long as governments and financial markets have existed, governments have kidded themselves into believing they could control financial markets.”

Be patient. Call or send us a message with questions. Let’s make sure your investments are best positioned for your situation. Thank you for working with us as your trusted advisor.